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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."